The San Francisco Bay Area’s largest transit systems — BART, Caltrain, Muni, and AC Transit — face significant operating deficits. These deficits largely stem from the COVID-19 pandemic and lasting changes to commutes. Although people have returned to transit and their recreational trips have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, they commute less frequently, leaving a revenue gap for transit agencies. Without new funding, agencies are preparing for severe service reductions beginning as soon as January 2027. The reductions could include station and route closures, sharply decreased service frequencies, and the elimination of some weekend and late-night service.
What would these transit cuts mean for the region? SPUR partnered with engineering and infrastructure consulting firm Jacobs to estimate the impacts on everyone — not just transit riders. Our latest research brief reveals their extensive consequences for transit access and equity, traffic delays, pollution, and cost of living.
The severe and irreversible impacts of service cuts led SPUR to sponsor regional measure Prop. RTM and to provide input into the structure of San Francisco’s Prop. H, a new parcel tax to fund Muni service. Our research shows that passing both measures in November 2026 is the only realistic and timely way to avoid a transit meltdown that would make the Bay Area less accessible, affordable, and livable.