Big changes are coming to California’s energy system now that the state has set out to be carbon-neutral by 2045. Meeting this goal will require all buildings in the state to rely entirely on electric appliances in less than 25 years. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District has proposed deadlines for ending the sale of gas furnaces, boilers and water heaters. Will the proposed dates be sufficient to complete the transition by 2045? SPUR's answer found that the standard would transition roughly 90% of households to electric appliances like heat pumps by 2045. But to fully meet its climate goals, California will need to pair new sales standards with substantial incentives.
Any postponement in phasing out gas appliances in residential buildings will further delay the state in meeting its climate targets and lock in decades of pollution — along with its associated health harms. Driving the adoption of zero-emission appliances before today’s gas appliances stop working will take strong public policy and significant local and state incentives.