A new state law requires Bay Area jurisdictions on the shoreline to develop sea level rise adaptation plans in coordination with one another. The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) is managing this effort, called the Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan (RSAP), and SPUR participated in an advisory group to guide development of the soon-to-be-released plan. The recently released draft RSAP is a sophisticated and complex document covering a broad range of goals that will guide future sea level rise adaptation practices in our region and beyond. SPUR believes that the RSAP reflects intentionality in guiding the next phase of our regional planning efforts in response to climate change. And luckily, the recent passage of California Proposition 4, the $10 billion climate bond, will give a boost to this initiative, as local sea level rise planning efforts could soon benefit from bond funding.
Projects that come out of this planning guidance will be critical to the future of the Bay Area. California faces some of the nation’s most severe climate risks, with increasingly visible impacts from sea level rise, extreme heat, wildfires, extreme storms, and drought. The Bay Area is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding, and sewer overflows into the San Francisco Bay during extreme storms, like the storms that caused flooding of low-lying communities in East Palo Alto and parts of San Francisco in January 2023.
The Ocean Protection Council projects that the Bay Area could experience about 1 foot of sea level rise by 2050 and 3 feet to 6.5 feet by 2100. Without effective adaptation, sea level rise could lead to serious impacts on existing jobs and housing, disproportionate impacts on geographically vulnerable low-income communities of color, and the loss of wetlands and coastal ecosystems.
Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise
To systematically advance adaptation efforts to address current flooding and future sea level rise along the San Francisco Bay shoreline, California adopted Senate Bill (SB) 272 in 2023. SB 272 requires Bay Area jurisdictions on the shoreline to develop sea level rise adaptation plans as part of a regionally coordinated approach managed by BCDC. The shoreline adaptation plans must be approved by BCDC on or before January 1, 2034.
Regional planning to address sea level rise has been underway for more than a decade, but SB 272 is considered a critical tool in making these long-term efforts more impactful. In 2024, BCDC worked with regional stakeholders to develop the Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan (RSAP). This framework seeks to guide local planning while establishing regional priorities to ensure efficient and effective knowledge sharing and investments. Cities and counties will contribute to subregional shoreline adaptation plans that align with the RSAP’s “One Bay Vision.”
RSAP’s One Bay Vision
The RSAP also lays out eight strategic regional priorities, including reducing residential displacement, protecting natural ecosystems, improving critical infrastructure, and addressing the health impacts of contamination on environmental justice communities.
RSAP Strategic Regional Priorities
- Reduced Involuntary Displacement
- Complete and Connected Ecosystems
- Safe and Strategic Shoreline Growth and Density
- Reliable Critical Infrastructure and Services
- Connected Regional Shoreline Access
- Regional Movement of People and Goods
- Reduced Contamination in Environmental Justice Communities
- Cross-jurisdictional Flood Risk Reduction
Source: San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan: One Bay Vision, Strategic Regional Priorities, and Subregional Shoreline Adaptation Plan Guidelines, page 43.
The RSAP aims to avoid a patchwork of uncoordinated local projects by creating consistent standards, guidelines, and outcomes. The RSAP Advisory Group includes leaders from community-based organizations, local governments, nonprofit advocacy groups, state and federal agencies, and industry and business leaders. The RSAP draft was recently closed for public comment, and BCDC is now updating the draft before voting to adopt it as an amendment to the Bay Plan. The Bay Plan is BCDC’s guiding document for implementing the laws of the 1965 McAteer Petris Act, which established BCDC and gave it the authority and responsibility to limit shoreline development that fills in San Francisco Bay wetlands, promote public access to the Bay, issue and deny development permits along the Bay, and more.
Adaptation Approaches and Partnerships to Advance Them
The RSAP encourages the use of physical and nonphysical adaptation approaches, emphasizing flexible solutions that align with each community’s unique needs and risks.
Physical approaches might involve restoring natural ecosystems, constructing ecotone levees (shallow slopes that connect flood risk management levees to tidal marshes), elevating land, or building seawalls. Nature-based solutions, such as marsh restoration, offer multiple benefits: flood protection, ecosystem preservation, and green space access.
Nonphysical approaches could include creating financial pathways to fund resilience projects, updating building codes for resilience, and implementing overlay zones, special zoning districts placed over existing zoning districts to create additional or stricter regulations, for example, to manage development in environmentally sensitive areas, such as floodplains, wetlands, or groundwater recharge areas. Policy-oriented measures, such as overlay zones and updated building codes, can provide long-term resilience by ensuring that new development accounts for future flood risks, reducing long-term disaster costs.
Many cities have already begun partnerships to advance sea level rise adaptation. For example, the Oakland-Alameda Adaptation Committee (OAAC), a regional coalition of public agencies and community stakeholders, is coordinating flood and sea level rise adaptation projects that will protect and restore water quality, habitat, recreation, and community resilience. The OAAC is initiating three interrelated projects to prepare for sea level rise, storm-driven flooding, and rising groundwater while prioritizing natural habitat, nature-based solutions, and green infrastructure. The three projects are looking at near- and long-term adaptation planning at various scales along shorelines through the lens of equity and community co-creation using the best-available climate science to guide planning efforts. The OAAC has been hosting community workshops to solicit input on adaptation design. The next workshops will be hosted in early December.
Although many Bay Area cities have already developed sea level rise adaptation plans, the RSAP will encourage more regional partnerships and knowledge sharing, ensure that equity is at the center of all planning and implementation efforts, and likely create opportunities to prioritize limited funding for projects that are most needed now. SPUR seeks to be a convener and connector as subregional plans move forward.
SPUR’s Role in Regional Shoreline Adaptation Planning
SPUR has long championed regional planning to meet the challenge of sea level rise and has worked in partnership with BCDC and other regional agencies to advance regional priorities. As an RSAP advisory group member, SPUR contributed to the development of the RSAP by advocating for clearer metrics on outcomes, improved data on groundwater rise and combined flood risks, and the inclusion of flooding and groundwater rise impacts on contaminated sites in environmental justice communities — neighborhoods or areas where people experience a disproportionate amount of environmental hazards. SPUR submitted a public comment letter that outlined recommendations for improving both the RSAP draft and the technical assistance program that BCDC is developing to support local jurisdictions in adaptation efforts, including planning and prioritizing projects. We also signed a joint statement with other organizations urging BCDC to prevent the RSAP from being watered down.
Funding for Regional Shoreline Adaptation and the Role of Proposition 4
The success of the RSAP and SB 272 relies heavily on securing consistent funding for local adaptation plans. California’s SB 1, passed in 2021, designated funding for adaptation projects across the state, but some of that funding was later cut and some of it delayed due to the current state budget deficit. Now, however, passage of California’s Proposition 4 means that $75 million will be made available to support SB 1’s sea level rise initiatives. SPUR recommended that voters approve Prop 4 as part of our November 2024 Voter Guide, and we contributed to regional and state advocacy efforts as part of the Yes on Prop 4 campaign. SB 1 and regional shoreline adaptation efforts will be beneficiaries of this $10 billion bond for climate resilience. In a moment of political upheaval at the federal level, SPUR is glad to see that California voters agree that acting on climate change now is critical to protect the future of our state.
If you would like to participate in advocating for the Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan, you can sign the Sierra Club's petition calling for a strong and effective, regionally coordinated response to sea level rise.