ABAG and MTC released their Initial Vision Scenario at a meeting in Oakland today (http://apps.mtc.ca.gov/events/agendaView.akt?p=1629) . By 2035, the scenario assumes the Bay Area will grow by 2 million people (to 9.4 million) and 1.2 million jobs (to 4.5 million). The scenario is the first major milestone in the development of the Bay Area’s Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS), which is part of the implementation of SB 375.

To review the presentation of the Initial Vision Scenario, click here (http://apps.mtc.ca.gov/meeting_packet_documents/agenda_1629/04_IVS__final_final031011.pdf). To review the more detailed report, click here http://apps.mtc.ca.gov/meeting_packet_documents/agenda_1629/Initial_Vision_Scenario_Report_-_FINAL.pdf

Highlights of the scenario’s assumptions:

• 97% of new household growth is on existing urbanized land.
• 60 miles of dedicated bus lines in San Francisco and Santa Clara Counties
• San Francisco adds 90,000 households (26% growth rate)
• San Francisco’s jobs grow from 545,000 to 714,000 (31% growth rate).
• Achieves a region-wide 12% per capita reduction in greenhouse gases. (Note: This is short of the 15% per capita goal. But most of the reduction is from the assumption of slow economic growth, not an urbanist land use vision).

This scenario is a good start but doesn’t get us towards a truly sustainable vision for the Bay Area. SPUR is interested in subsequent scenarios testing a much more transit-oriented growth pattern for jobs and houses. To get residents out of the cars, many more jobs have to be located within a quarter mile of regional rail and many more households within a half mile of any transit.

To review the San Francisco local government response (including several excellent comment letters), click here (http://www.sf-planning.org/index.aspx?page=2655).

Stay tuned here for more updates.