Initial Vision Scenario Released for the Bay Area

POSTED BY EGON TERPLAN
March 11, 2011
The Initial Vision Scenario predicts significant housing and job growth in San Francisco

The Association of Bay Area Governments and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission released their Initial Vision Scenario for growth in the Bay Area at a meeting in Oakland today. By 2035, the scenario assumes the Bay Area will grow by 2 million people (to 9.4 million) and 1.2 million jobs (to 4.5 million). The scenario is the first major milestone in the development of the Bay Area’s Sustainable Communities Strategy, a plan designed to accomodate growth while reducing greenhouse gases from driving, which is required of each region in the state by SB 375, California's 2008 Climate Protection Act.

Review the presentation of the Initial Vision Scenario >>

Review the more detailed report >> 

Highlights of the scenario’s assumptions:

  • 97 percent of new household growth is on existing urbanized land
  • 60 miles of dedicated bus lines in San Francisco and Santa Clara Counties
  • San Francisco adds 90,000 households (26 percent growth rate)
  • San Francisco’s jobs grow from 545,000 to 714,000 (31 percent growth rate)
  • Achieves a region-wide 12 percent per capita reduction in greenhouse gases. (Note: This is short of the 15 percent per capita goal. But most of the reduction is from the assumption of slow economic growth, not from an urbanist land use vision).

This scenario is a good start, but it doesn’t get us to a truly sustainable vision for the Bay Area. SPUR is interested in subsequent scenarios testing a much more transit-oriented growth pattern for jobs and houses. To get residents out of their cars, many more jobs have to be located within a quarter mile of regional rail and many more households within a half mile of any transit.

Read the response from San Francisco local government >>

Stay tuned to the SPUR Blog for more updates.